Neil Howe

Neil Howe

Formal First Name
10/21/1951 - present

Neil Howe is the Managing Director of Demography at Hedgeye. An acclaimed author and speaker, he is the nation’s leading thinker of today's generations. He is a recognized authority on global aging, long-term fiscal policy, and migration. He is a historian, economist, and demographer, and a leading authority on generational trends. Howe coined the term "Millennial Generation" and is the bestselling author of over a dozen books. He has served hundreds of clients—from Nike and Fidelity to Disney and the U.S. Marine Corps.

  • Leading authority on social generations
    • Has categorized and tracked them going back hundreds of years
  • Coined the term "Millenials"
  • Believes that generational cycles drive our world
    • Drive values
    • Drive politics
    • Drive goals, ideals, etc.
  • Major Cycles:
    • Tend to re-shape the politicical/civic world every 80 years:  Founding of colonies, Revolutionary War, Civil War, Great Depression
    • Between political/civic changes, tend to revamp social/values
  • Proposes a 4 period generational cycle of archetypes
    • Repeatable cycle shapes generations in their youth
    • Causes generations to behave in a certain way when they are of age leaders
    • Series of roughly  20 Year Periods:
      • High - Heroes of Leadership Age
      • Awakening - Artists of  Leadership Age
      • Unraveling - Prophets of Leadership Age
      • Crisis - Nomads of Leadership Age
    • Series of Archetypes
      • Hero (ex. GI Generation)
        • Leaders during a "High"
        • born after an awakening & protectively raises
        • comes to age during national emergencies
      • shapes the future with new systems and order (new civic life)
      • Artist (ex. Silent Generation)
      • Leadership during an "Awakening"
      • Prophet (ex. Boomers)
        • born after a crisis
        • come to age during an awakening
        • Leadership during an unraveling
      • Nomad (ex. Gen X)
        • born during an awakening
        • Leadership during a crisis
  • Four Turnings: (From 1997 Fourth Turning Book)
    • 1) Post Crisis Era (a high) (Spring Season)
      • Ex. 1940s - 1960s Americas
      • Institutions are strong
      • Focused on mainstream (not minorities
      • Individualism is week
      • Strong collective consensus
    • 2) Awakening (Summer Season)
      • People wan't to find themselves: stop conforming
      • Become more individualized society
      • Ex. Late 60s - 80s
    • 3) Fall Season
      • Late 80s - 90s - 2000s
      • Individualism celebrated: Institutions not supported
    • 4) Crisis Era (Winter Season)
      • Likely started in 2008-2009

  • Found idea to look at cycles in history by accident