Strategies

More About Cycles

  • Cycles are natural and all around un
  • Unfortunately cycles need to have "bad times" in order to enjoy "good times"
  • Must have deflation & inflation, rising unemployment & falling unemployment, etc.
  • The best cycle researchers/experts use a hierarchy of cycles that overlap to forecast a larger trend
  • Why are cycles unpopular?
    • People may not like the idea that cycles require downturns (They prefer everything just going up


Some Famous Cycles

  • 30 Year Commodity Cycle with peaks in:
    • 1920
    • 19149-51
    • 1980
    • 2008-2011
    • 2038-2040 (expected)
  • 500 Year Innovation Cycle
    • 1150 Commercial Revolution
    • 1648 Capitalist Revolution
    • 2100s Peak Information Revolution (Started in 1900)
  • Generation Cycles
    • Every 40 years there is a new generation
  • Innovation Cycles (45 years)
  • 100 Year Globalization Cycle
    • Big peaks in 1912 and 2008-12
  • Sunspot Cycles
    • 88% recessions happened during low sunspot cycles
    • Fewer Sunspots = Less Energy to Earth = Less Happy People = Fewer Crops
    • 11/11 Major Crashes happened during down sunspot cycles