John Paul Smith

John Paul Smith

Formal First Name
John Paul

John Paul Smith is an emerging markets veteran and Founder of Ecstrat, a consultancy firm advising on asset allocation between global equity markets, with a focus on the intersection of geopolitics, governance and markets. Smith has had a long track record in making timely calls in markets. He was one of the first to warn of an impending Russian debt crisis in 1998, building a strong reputation as one of the leading analysts in emerging markets. Prior to founding his own firm, Smith was Chief Emerging Equity Strategist at Deutsche Bank. He was also the Chief Strategist at Pictet Asset Management, a Swiss multinational private bank and financial services company. Prior to Pictet, he also served as a leading forecaster at Morgan Stanley.

Professional Experience


  • Predicted Russia's 1998 crisis.

  • His bearish call on emerging equities at the end of 2010, before the sector significantly underperformed U.S. stocks from 2011 to 2013.