Terms

BLS Job Models

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is an independent statistical agency that measures and reports labor market activity, working conditions and price changes in the economy. As the BLS collects, analyzes, and organizes the essential economic data, they also compile reports such as Consumer Price Index (CPI), changes in unemployment, wage data, productivity data, and the Producer Price Index (PPI). The BLS developed projections of the industry and occupational employment through six interrelated steps or models: labor force, aggregate economy, final demand (GDP) by consuming sector and product, industry output, industry employment, and employment and openings by occupation.

Caution - Is A Lagging indicator for Stock Markets

  • Some will actually claim that stock markets are a leading indicator for BLS job reports
  • Example:  2000 Recession
    • 467,000 new jobs were reported in March 2000
    • 6 month prior average gain was 306,000 per month
    • The Nasdaq dropped 33% in April 2000
    • Nasdaq dropped 50% within 18 months
    • US economy was in recession within 1 year