Inverted Yield Curve

Parent term
The Yield Curve inverts when a shorter-term interest rate yields more than a longer-term interest rate

  • a classic recession warning signal
    • it has preceded every recession of the last 60 years (Circa 2020)

  • Typically describes when the 10-year yield falls below the 2-year yield (most often cited yield curve)
  • Means that investors are getting paid less to lend money over a longer time period
  • Has been a great indicator of an upcoming recessions
    • Act as a "warning sign"
    • Has forecasted all 9 US recessions since 1957
    • Examples:  107-27 yiled curve inverted 22 months before the market top in 2007 (57% plunge after) 
    • One of the most reliable economic indicators
  • On average it takes 14 months from a yield curve inversion till a recession begins
  • On average it takes 8 months from a yield curve inversion till a stock market peak


What Causes a Yield Curve Inversion?